The NHL, like most professional sports leagues, is driven by it's major markets and there are few if any larger than Toronto. The self proclaimed center of the universe is a hockey mad mecca that bleeds blue and white. In fact Maple Leafs fans border on the insane (the definition of insanity being to do the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. In this case expecting their team to win the Stanley Cup.) Gotta admire their dedication. With their cup drought approaching 50 years and little to no sign of that finishing anytime soon could the NHL's new Draft Lottery rules actually help to end this torment? And could the league itself be complicit?
With the trade of Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville it's safe to say the Leafs have bid sionora to the season. Though I give them a full credit this time around as for once they're actually positioning themselves for a top pick and acquiring assets for potential unrestricted free agents after years of foolishly clinging to the belief that they could make the playoffs and holding on to such players only to see their hopes dashed along with any shot at a top prospect. GM Dave Nonis and his group have, I guess you can say earned a shot at getting a top pick and as a result of the new format of the NHL Draft Lottery, could even get the first overall pick.
This is where the fun begins. The NHL's new Draft Lottery format allows any team that doesn't qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs to have a chance at winning the lottery and picking first overall. Now, the percentages are drastically lower the further back you are but to quote Lloyd Christmas: "You're saying there's a chance?!" The Buffalo Sabres currently sit in the NHL's basement and are set to have the best odds, (20%) at picking concensus number one overall pick Connor McDavid. McDavid is touted as a generational talent, a player who could single-handedly transform a franchise's fortunes. The long suffering fans of Buffalo could use such a saviour. GM Tim Murray has stockpiled a number of talented young players and draft picks to rebuild, but this would be the ultimate payoff for several lackluster seasons on the ice. It's a city with a loyal, knowledgeable, fan base, long hockey tradition and Hall of Fame players like Gilbert Perreault and Domink Hasek but would the league be best served by having McDavid there or say, in a much larger hockey market not that far north?
This is a league who has few universally recognizable faces or names to market across the US. While Buffalo is a certainly hockey town it's a small market so the question is would McDavid and the league be well served by having an up and coming young superstar playing here, or in some hockey backwater like Carolina or Arizona? Well, sure....maybe. The argument for how this benefits everyone is simple: if he goes to a floundering team like Arizona or Carolina he'll instantly drum up interest and put fannies in the seats, both at home and when those teams are on the road. There are no more tickets to sell in Toronto and Leafs fans will cheer for them regardless so how is this more beneficial to the league?
A. Jersey sales. While Connor McDavid is exceptionally talented he alone is unlikely to turn North Carolina or Arizona into hockey mad states where there is a jersey on the back of every fan and they dominate any and all sports conversation. The NHL is always front page stuff in the great white north and the sheer amount of product he would move in TO would be staggering and most importantly from a league standpoint extremely profitable.
B. Actual Ticket Sales: Are these arenas, which have thousands of empty seats on any given night suddenly going to be the hottest ticket in town selling out every game? No. The reality is while it would in all likely-hood increase ticket revenue and attendance in these markets, it's not going to suddenly drag non hockey fans out to the rink. Carolina is a Stanley Cup champion not that long ago. If that didn't create a true hockey market, neither will this.
C. Playoff Revenue/Ratings: If McDavid can get the Leafs back to the playoffs, even if this only resulted in the minimum two home games, it could generate more interest and revenue than a long run in other markets. When the Leafs were in the playoffs a few years back the average ticket price was $218. 20. This is almost as much if not more than the most expensive seats in other markets. Say what you like, money talks. Also, hockey fans south of the border recognize the blue and white and are much more likely to watch a hockey game involving a traditional six team than other markets. This has been illustrated by the significantly higher TV ratings when a market like, Boston, Chicago or the Rangers were in the Stanley cup finals over the past few years vs. when teams like the Devils and Kings faced off several years ago.
D. Bandage Solution: McDavid would undoubtedly help the league in a small market while he played, and that team could even attract better free agents to help him purse a championship, but the question is will the effect last? During his tenure, sure, but afterwards? And could these teams generate the revenue necessary to fill a roster will top end talent needed for such an endeavour even with him?
Yes it's a reach to suggest that the league would do whatever they could to put McDavid in blue and white come October. This is a billion dollar franchise who doesn't even need to win, but if they ever did...
