Conn-spiracy Theory

The NHL, like most professional sports leagues, is driven by it's major markets and there are few if any larger than Toronto. The self proclaimed center of the universe is a hockey mad mecca that bleeds blue and white. In fact Maple Leafs fans border on the insane (the definition of insanity being to do the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. In this case expecting their team to win the Stanley Cup.) Gotta admire their dedication. With their cup drought approaching 50 years and little to no sign of that finishing anytime soon could the NHL's new Draft Lottery rules actually help to end this torment? And could the league itself be complicit?

With the trade of Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville it's safe to say the Leafs have bid sionora to the season. Though I give them a full credit this time around as for once they're actually positioning themselves for a top pick and acquiring assets for potential unrestricted free agents after years of foolishly clinging to the belief that they could make the playoffs and holding on to such players only to see their hopes dashed along with any shot at a top prospect. GM Dave Nonis and his group have, I guess you can say earned a shot at getting a top pick and as a result of the new format of the NHL Draft Lottery, could even get the first overall pick.

This is where the fun begins. The NHL's new Draft Lottery format allows any team that doesn't qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs to have a chance at winning the lottery and picking first overall. Now, the percentages are drastically lower the further back you are but to quote Lloyd Christmas: "You're saying there's a chance?!" The Buffalo Sabres currently sit in the NHL's basement and are set to have the best odds, (20%) at picking concensus number one overall pick Connor McDavid. McDavid is touted as a generational talent, a player who could single-handedly transform a franchise's fortunes. The long suffering fans of Buffalo could use such a saviour. GM Tim Murray has stockpiled a number of talented young players and draft picks to rebuild, but this would be the ultimate payoff for several lackluster seasons on the ice. It's a city with a loyal, knowledgeable, fan base, long hockey tradition and Hall of Fame players like Gilbert Perreault and Domink Hasek but would the league be best served by having McDavid there or say, in a much larger hockey market not that far north?

This is a league who has few universally recognizable faces or names to market across the US. While Buffalo is a certainly hockey town it's a small market so the question is would McDavid and the league be well served by having an up and coming young superstar playing here, or in some hockey backwater like Carolina or Arizona? Well, sure....maybe. The argument for how this benefits everyone is simple: if he goes to a floundering team like Arizona or Carolina he'll instantly drum up interest and put fannies in the seats, both at home and when those teams are on the road. There are no more tickets to sell in Toronto and Leafs fans will cheer for them regardless so how is this more beneficial to the league?

A. Jersey sales. While Connor McDavid is exceptionally talented he alone is unlikely to turn North Carolina or Arizona into hockey mad states where there is a jersey on the back of every fan and they dominate any and all sports conversation. The NHL is always front page stuff in the great white north and the sheer amount of product he would move in TO would be staggering and most importantly from a league standpoint extremely profitable.

B. Actual Ticket Sales: Are these arenas, which have thousands of empty seats on any given night suddenly going to be the hottest ticket in town selling out every game? No. The reality is while it would in all likely-hood increase ticket revenue and attendance in these markets, it's not going to suddenly drag non hockey fans out to the rink. Carolina is a Stanley Cup champion not that long ago. If that didn't create a true hockey market, neither will this.

C. Playoff Revenue/Ratings: If McDavid can get the Leafs back to the playoffs, even if this only resulted in the minimum two home games, it could generate more interest and revenue than a long run in other markets. When the Leafs were in the playoffs a few years back the average ticket price was $218. 20. This is almost as much if not more than the most expensive seats in other markets. Say what you like, money talks. Also, hockey fans south of the border recognize the blue and white and are much more likely to watch a hockey game involving a traditional six team than other markets. This has been illustrated by the significantly higher TV ratings when a market like, Boston, Chicago or the Rangers were in the Stanley cup finals over the past few years vs. when teams like the Devils and Kings faced off several years ago.

D. Bandage Solution: McDavid would undoubtedly help the league in a small market while he played, and that team could even attract better free agents to help him purse a championship, but the question is will the effect last? During his tenure, sure, but afterwards? And could these teams generate the revenue necessary to fill a roster will top end talent needed for such an endeavour even with him?

Yes it's a reach to suggest that the league would do whatever they could to put McDavid in blue and white come October. This is a billion dollar franchise who doesn't even need to win, but if they ever did...

Enough is Enough...Time the NHL Cracked Down

Once again we find the NHL having to dole out discipline, and once again we find ourselves scratching our heads at just how they got there. Seriously, trying to guess what Brendan Shannahan will decide is like deciphering an episode of Lost. Patrick Kaleta a serial repeat offender crossed checked Brad Richards into the boards from behind last week and was thrown from the game and given a five game suspension. This is only one game more than is last suspension for head butting. He has been on the receiving end of suspensions three previous times and is a know @&#^ disturber across the league. With all that, Shannan added a whopping one game to the last suspension he was given. I like Brendan Shannahan as a player. He was tough and skilled and played the game hard. But now he's more like a puppet for the league. If the league wants to take player safety seriously, send a message. I like the decision to ban Zolnerchuck from Philly four games for his high hit to Ottawa's Mike Lundin a lot better, and it could have been more. Lundin was hurt and Richards was able to return but didn't play last night against Philly. I know injury is part of the equation but sometimes guys are just luck not to get hurt. It doesn't make the offending play any less egregious.

Take for example last Wednesday when the Leafs played the Habs and Mike Brown was tossed for hitting Josh Georges from behind. It was one of those plays that could have been two minutes, I didn't mind the major as this is the kind of hit the league needs to get out, but this was a case where the name on the back of the jersey was likely the reason. You think Kessel or Grabovski would have been tossed? There was outraged from the Leafs bench, understandably, but the bigger question here is, why put the referee in that situation? Hockey is a fast paced games and with the benefit of replay we can often look back and see reasons to mitigate punishment but at full speed they don't have that luxury so why risk it? I like the idea of being able to sort of grab a guy and hold him up a bit if you want to pin him to the boards as it is safer than running a guy which we've seen a lot of lately.

We can also look at the bizarre ruling in the Ryan Clowe case as an example of how the league needs to protect players from themselves. As I said before is Shaw was given a penalty none of that nonsense afterwards would have happened. It's up to the league, players and officials to get this thing under control for the sake of everyone involved and clean up the game and more strictly punish those who cross the line if only to get others thinking twice before they follow suit. 

Ruff Times in Buffalo

The Buffalo Sabres parted ways with long time head coach Lindy Ruff today after struggling mightily out of the gate this year. Much was expected of the Sabres who are among the top ten in the league in payroll and new owner Terry Pegula spent a lot of money on players like Tomas Vanek, Tyler Myers, Jordan Leoplod, Christian Ehrhoff and Jason Pomminville with the expectations of being a contender. Thus far, while Vanek and Pomenville have played well, the rest of the team isn't. Star goaltender Ryan Miller has been inconsistent at best and called his team out after a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh Sunday in which they coughed up the lead late in the third period only to have the team play a stinker of a game and lose 2-1 to Winnipeg at home last night. They were booed off the ice and that proved to be the last straw as Ruff was let go earlier today. The looks on the players face said it all. They knew it was there fault and they now have to prove that they are capable of being better. Many insiders felt GM Darcy Regier's fate would be tied to Ruff's as he is the one who gave him the players to work with, but it looks like he will have a bit more time to work with though one would imagine he is on a very short leash. This is a team that has a lot of talent, on paper, but clearly hasn't lived up to anyone's expectations and the usual questions were asked. Why is that? Did they stop listening to the coach? Is it chemistry or lack there of? The answer may be all of the above. The biggest concern for the Sabres is keeping the puck out of their own net. Their defensive core has been brutal and this may have not been more evident than last night when Bryan Little was left all alone in front Ryan Miller and buried a pass from behind the net while all five Sabres defenders were almost below the blue line. Pewee teams have more structure. Where they go from here is interesting as Ruff was a well liked guy in Buffalo over his 16 years and was known for getting a lot out of a little. The new bench boss will have to get more out of his team or they could again find themselves on the outside of the playoffs looking in.